{"id":1919,"date":"2021-11-27T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-27T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/us-chinaforum.com\/archives\/1919"},"modified":"2021-11-27T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-11-27T08:00:00","slug":"433-11-27-%e8%8c%83%e6%b9%98%e6%bf%a4-%e5%bf%85%e7%84%b6%e5%b0%8d%e6%89%8b-vs-%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e5%85%b1%e8%b4%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/us-chinaforum.com\/2021\/1919\/","title":{"rendered":"\u200b#433 11\/27\u00a0\u200b\u8303\u6e58\u6fe4\u00a0\u00a0\u5fc5\u7136\u5c0d\u624b\u00a0 VS\u00a0 \u5408\u4f5c\u5171\u8d0f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"paragraph\">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u201c\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u52d9\u6708\u520a\u201d \uff08Foreign Affairs)\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u7531\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u7c73\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\uff08John Mearsheimer\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u662f\u201cInevitable Rivalry\u201d\uff08\u5fc5\u7136\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u5f9e\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u8aac\u8d77\uff0c\u90a3\u500b\u6642\u5019\u7f8e\u570b\u525b\u525b\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e86\u51b7\u6230\u52dd\u5229\uff0c\u8607\u806f\u89e3\u9ad4\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u5f37\u6b0a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u90a3\u6642\u5019\u8981\u58d3\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u90a3\u6642\u4e2d\u570b\u7684GDP\u53ea\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e03\u5341\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u53c8\u5f31\u53c8\u7aae\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u770b\u5728\u773c\u88cf\u3002\u8001\u5e03\u5e0c\uff0c\u514b\u6797\u9813\uff0c\u5c0f\u5e03\u5e0c\uff0c\u5967\u5df4\u99ac\uff0c\u56db\u4f4d\u7e3d\u7d71\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u90fd\u63a1\u53d6\u4e86\u6276\u6301\u6e9d\u901a\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5f9e\u7d66\u4e88\u4e2d\u570b\u6700\u60e0\u570b\u5f85\u9047\u5230\u6c38\u4e45\u6700\u60e0\u570b\u5f85\u9047\uff0c\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u9032\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u7d44\u7e54\uff08WTO)\uff1b\u539f\u672c\u4ee5\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7a0d\u70ba\u5bcc\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u4fbf\u6703\u8d77\u4f86\u722d\u53d6\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5c40\uff0c\u6703\u8feb\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u6c38\u9060\u8ddf\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u8d70\uff1b\u6c92\u60f3\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5922\u60f3\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u73fe\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4eca\u5929\u4e2d\u570b\u9019\u500b\u9f8e\u7136\u5927\u7269\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6230\u7565\u4e0a\u7684\u6975\u5927\u5931\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96a8\u8457\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5be6\u529b\u589e\u5f37\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u800c\u7136\u7684\u5c31\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u5176\u8ecd\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u5e0c\u671b\u6210\u70ba\u5340\u57df\u5927\u570b\u66f4\u5e0c\u671b\u6210\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u5f37\u6b0a\uff0c\u800c\u8001\u724c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5f37\u6b0a\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u770b\u4e0d\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u7f8e\u4e2d\u4e4b\u9593\u6709\u4e86\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\uff0c\u96d9\u65b9\u6210\u4e86\u5c0d\u624b\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5f37\u6b0a\u4e0d\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u9019\u6b21\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6b21\u51b7\u6230\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u8607\u806f\u8981\u5f37\u5f97\u592a\u591a\uff1a1970 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Watcher)\u806f\u540d\u5beb\u4fe1\u7d66\u5ddd\u666e\uff0c\u547c\u7c72\u4ed6\u80fd\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u53c3\u8207\u4e00\u500b\u958b\u653e\u7e41\u69ae\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u7cbe\u82f1\u5011\u4e5f\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7b97\u76e4\uff0c\u60f3\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7a0d\u6709\u9322\u5f8c\u53bb\u722d\u53d6\u201c\u6c11\u4e3b\u81ea\u7531\u201d\uff08\u7c73\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\u6587\u4e2d\u4e5f\u66fe\u63d0\u5230\uff09\uff0c\u6c92\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u7d44\u7e54\u529b\u548c\u52d5\u54e1\u529b\u90a3\u9ebc\u5f37\u5927\uff0c\u7df4\u5c31\u4e86\u4e00\u8eab\u91d1\u9418\u7f69\u9435\u5e03\u886b\u7684\u529f\u592b\uff0c\u201c\u984f\u8272\u9769\u547d\u201d\u5728\u5b83\u9762\u524d\u662f\u90a3\u9ebc\u7684\u5fae\u5f31\u7121\u529b\u22ef\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u897f\u8afa\u4e2d\u6709\u4e00\u53e5\u7d93\u5178\u540d\u8a00\u201cCan\u2019t beat them,join them\u201d 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world)\u800c\u4e2d\u570b\u5021\u5c0e\u7684\u662f\u591a\u6975\u4e16\u754c\uff08Multipolar world),\u4f9d\u64da\u7c73\u65af\u6d77\u9ed8\u6559\u6388\u7684\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c\u5230\u4e862050\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u570bGDP 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