Abstract
A deeper analysis of headline news about President Trump’s words and actions may reveal that Trump is acting according to a plan based on his core beliefs.
In further analysis, this author believes that Trump does have a plan (which may be hidden as a poker player does). Trump’s plan may not be explicitly clear, but it is in his head, guiding his thoughts and actions. Trump understands the power of the U.S. president, a mighty power for most of the world to contend with, a few exceptions such as nations like Russia and China, and a few countries with a nuclear threat like North Korea and Iran. Trump is a smart businessman with cunning trading skills, he is taking over the mighty U.S. presidency to accomplish his definition and goals of MAGA. If we carefully review his deeds and words since he commanded his second term (even before he won the election), we may see a glimpse of his ‘secret or invisible’ plan.
Trumponomics may appear just as a tariff war, which many economists worry about its long-term bad outcome for the U.S. and the world economy. But Trump seems to know what he is doing. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel may cause some pain and unhappiness with our neighbors, but it will drive back some basic manufacturing industries to the U.S. for national security and the basic foundation of the economy. Manufacturing is only 11% of the U.S. GDP (China has 26.2% manufacturing in its GDP in 2023), so Trump’s rough plan may work faster than the previous Administration’s soft plan. Sure, a tariff war may bring retaliation, inflation, and even recession, but such a risk may be called off based on the data analysis Trump has access to. Trump’s uncertainty in setting tariffs against trading partners may be a part of his plan.
Trump bragged about his success in getting TSMC to invest over $100 billion more in the U.S. for chip fabs. His high-handed tariff threat works on many US- US-dependent economies such as Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. What can they do but cave in? Japan did sell some U.S. debt holdings (as a protest), but it can’t sell it all without absorbing heavy losses, so long as the U.S. still has control of the currency market. Trump is gambling on low-price oil to win the energy war and to keep the U.S. combustion engine auto industry living longer against the EV revolution. Of course, it is a risk, but with the U.S. falling behind in EV, battery, charging (electric grid), and infrastructure (including AI self-driving system support), his gamble (probably well advised by Elon Musk et al.) may be a short-term choice with the possibility to make a deal with China (leader in EV despite Tesla) in the future. After all, the U.S. auto market size is huge compared to the EU, South America, or Africa, for China is interested eventually. Will Trump be able to control the opportune time to collaborate with China?
Trump’s creation of DOGE is fulfilling his campaign promise and his own firm belief. So far, DOGE has not only revealed some real government waste and inefficiency issues but also raised the nation’s conscience on government budget, debt, and effectiveness. This sentiment is important to the MAGA goals. The real success of MAGA cannot be accomplished in one term of the US presidency, nor without sacrifice and give and take among different interest groups. Trump not only must start some immediate projects (like increasing manufacturing, building infrastructure, and strengthening semiconductor and AI robotics industries, but also must initiate some long-term MAGA goals that need international cooperation (such as importing technology, skills, and capital for major infrastructure programs and collaborating with others to ride the AI/EV/infrastructure revolution). The U.S. needs international partners and long-term treaties to ensure its MAGA success.
Trump’s statements about Canada “being the 51st state of the U.S.” or buying Greenland from Denmark may appear as his off-the-cuff remarks, but they are linked to the emerging new transport route across the North Pole (both national security and future economic development concerns). Trump is being advised daily by many staff on national security and economic issues; one can deduce from his remarks that he is keenly aware of world development. Should the U.S. take an aggressive hegemonic approach or a collaborative and mutually beneficial approach, it should be all in the cards to consider. Therefore, his words and actions in taking back the Panama Canal are also calculated deeds.
Trump may be loose in his tongue, but he is careful in his remarks when it comes to Russia and China. He realizes that he must contend with the new trilateral relations. He is certainly trying hard to keep a dialogue open between him and Putin and Xi, whether he was warmly received or not. He keeps direct communication with Putin to negotiate a cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war. A special envoy was sent to Beijing to discuss trade while a conference on U.S.-China relations was held (former Chinese ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tian Kai and Harvard Professor Graham Allison were in attendance). Trump is hoping to get a favorable outcome from the Chinese envoy, headed by Liu He, a very seasoned diplomat, but China cannot be bluffed. Liu He, nearing his retirement, is more likely to think about the long-term and legacy rather than short-term gains. So, Trump must be prepared to deal with substance and a long-term view (beyond his presidential term). Thus, Taiwan, semiconductors, oil and natural gas, wheat and corn, car imports, as well as long-term collaboration, are all items in the tariff-trade negotiation.
The U.S. mass media is influenced very much by their headline needs rather than cool-headed analyses like this one in the organic media. Trump is used to and knows how to take advantage of the media headlines to get himself in the news to keep his popularity. But he also knows that to keep the media and the world in surprise may be to his advantage. Hence, we may get a Trump image from the media, not who he is. This author believes that if one would ponder deeper into the media headlines to understand Trump’s words and deeds, one might find that Trump was acting with a plan based on his core beliefs, and we may know better what the future of the world may be like, perhaps a more collaborative world than the tariff war suggests.